USD/CAD – Canadian dollar rally fizzles, manufacturing production next

The Canadian dollar is unchanged in the Friday session, after slight losses on Thursday. Early in the North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3332, down 0.02% on the day. In the U.S., there are two key events. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to climb to 10.1, while UoM Consumer Sentiment is projected to remain at 95.5 points. Canada releases manufacturing sales, which has rolled off three straight declines. The markets are expecting a better January, with an estimate of 0.4%.

The Bank of Canada has eased up on rate policy in 2019. The BoC raised rates five times between July 2017 and October 2018, but has since stayed on the sidelines. With the Canadian economy in a slowdown, the bank could stay on the sidelines until the second half of 2019. Was the sharp jump in rates too much for the economy to handle? One sore spot is the housing sector, which has declined for five straight months, as higher rates have made mortgages more expensive and reduced home purchases. If the economy does not rebound, policymakers will have to consider a rate cut, which could stimulate economic activity but would be bearish for the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (March 15)

  • 8:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 10.1
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.5
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 7.27M

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, March 15, 2019

USD/CAD, March 15 at 8:20 EST

Open: 1.3334 High: 1.3339 Low: 1.3290 Close: 1.3339

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3125 1.3200 1.3290 1.3383 1.3445 1.3552

USD/CAD posted slight gains in the Asian session but has recovered in European trade

  • 1.3290 is providing support
  • 1.3383 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
  • Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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