Gold has posted slight losses on Thursday. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1287.99, down 0.14% on the day. In the U.S., the highlight was unemployment claims, which dropped to 202 thousand. This was below the forecast of 215 thousand. On Friday, the focus remains on U.S. employment data, with the release of nonfarm payrolls and wage growth.
Is the U.S. economy experiencing a slowdown? Key indicators have pointed lower, raising concerns about the strength of the economy. Retail sales and durable goods orders recorded declines and the trend continued on Wednesday. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 129 thousand, down from 183 thousand in the previous release. Will the official nonfarm payrolls follow suit? Nonfarm payrolls are projected at 175 thousand, a soft number in comparison to recent releases. Wage growth is expected to slow to 0.2%. If these key indicators are softer than expected, the U.S. dollar could lose ground.
U.S-China trade talks have continued this week, and there is increasing optimism that a deal may be close at hand. The sides have made substantial progress, with reports that an agreement between the world’s two largest economies is 90% complete. The outstanding issues include enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs. There has been positive news out of China this week, as manufacturing PMI posted a 14-month high, and the China 50 index has climbed to its highest level since March 2018. Further positive will raise investor risk appetite, which could spell headwinds for gold prices.
Trade deal hopes euphoria continues
Risk appetite increases on trade war breakthrough hope
Thursday (April 4)
- 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 0.4%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K. Actual 202K
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 2B. Actual 23B
Friday (April 5)
- 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 175K
- 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
XAU/USD for Thursday, April 4, 2019
XAU/USD April 4 at 12:30 DST
Open: 1289.86 High: 1293.960 Low: 1280.98 Close: 1287.99
XAU/USD edged higher in the Asian session but gave up these gains in the European session. The pair is down considerably in North American trade but has reversed directions and recovered most of these losses
- 1284 is providing support
- 1306 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1284 to 1306
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1284, 1261 and 1243
- Above: 1306, 1326, 1344 and 1365
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