EUR/USD dips to 3-month low as euro under pressure

EUR/USD is unchanged in the Tuesday session, after sustaining losses on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1278, up 0.02% on the day. It’s another slow day on the data calendar, with no eurozone or German data releases. In the U.S., JOLTS Jobs Openings is expected to slow to 6.84 million. On Wednesday, the eurozone releases industrial production and the U.S. releases CPI reports.

European Union finance ministers are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, and high on the agenda is a proposal for a eurozone budget. Unsurprisingly, the proposal is controversial, as members have sharply diverging views on the subject. France supports a large budget, while fiscal-conscious Germany is in favor a scaled-down budget. The current proposal calls for a budget of 55 billion euros. With the eurozone economy experiencing a slowdown which has affected Germany and other large members, policymakers may be more open to the idea of pooling funds and create a budget in order to strengthen the eurozone and the euro.

The euro has been on a six-day slide, losing 1.6% in that time. The catalyst for the downturn has been disappointing data out of the eurozone and Germany. Recent consumer data has been soft, with retail sales and inflation pointing lower. German manufacturing is also in trouble, with factory orders and industrial production recording declines. The global trade war has dampened the appetite for German and eurozone exports, which has weighed on the manufacturing sector. The U.S. poised to impose new tariffs on China on March 2 if a trade deal between the two countries is not reached. Although the sides are talking, there has been little sign of progress. If the tariffs are put in place, investors could send the euro sharply lower.

Markets not keen on a deadlock holiday

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (February 12)

  • 3:20 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.84M

  • 12:45 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 19:30 US FOMC Member George Speaks

Wednesday (February 13)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate- 0.4%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, February 12, 2019

EUR/USD for February 12 at 6:05 EST

Open: 1.1276 High: 1.1290 Low: 1.1258 Close: 1.1278

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD was mostly flat in the Asian session. The pair posted small gains in European trade but has recovered

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

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