Bitcoin fell again on Wednesday, as we have seen many times over during the last year or so. The 20 day EMA is offering resistance as we grind lower, and it looks as if we are trying to break down below the $3500 level. If and when we can have that happen, the market is very likely to go looking towards the $3000 level next, which of course is a large, round, psychologically important figure. With that in mind, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of choppiness in a market that seems to be directionless for the most part. Quite frankly, I think most of the selling is due to a lack of interest at this point, not necessarily fresh short opportunities coming into play.
If we can break above the 20 day EMA, although bullish for the short term, we still would have to contend with the downtrend line, the $4000 level, and then the 50 day EMA above. With that in mind, I’m not necessarily gung ho on buying this market until we clear the 50 day EMA on a daily close. I think anything between now and then will simply be an opportunity to sell on rallies as soon as we see signs of weakness. If you are a longer-term player, then you may look for a bit of a base closer to the $3000 level but I think that if it does in fact hold as a bit of a base, you will have plenty of time to get involved and therefore shouldn’t be in much of a rush at this point. I suspect that we will see a continuation of the complete lack of enthusiasm going forward.
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